Understanding Sports Betting Trends NFL NBA NHL MLB NCAA

In this case, the bet percentage is split evenly between the two teams (five bets on Gonzaga and five bets on Baylor). Use this insight wisely, stay disciplined, and you’ll be well on your way to reading the betting market like a pro – and maybe even beating the books at their own game. Over time, you’ll start spotting when the “smart money” is in play, and that’s a powerful edge to have. But don’t worry – you don’t need to be a math whiz or an insider to use this knowledge. Even casual bettors can benefit by avoiding obvious “public trap” situations and recognizing when a line move might be telling you something.

In this guide, we’ll discuss NFL betting trends and how you can use them to your advantage. The short answer is that the public loves favorites and big names. Teams like Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, and Clemson tend to get a disproportionate amount of both wagers and handle, even as massive double-digit favorites. In the 2021 season, the favorite covered 442 games ATS and lost 422 games ATS, which equals a 51.16% win percentage against the spread . In this theoretical example, the total has been set at a low 7.5 on a windy day in Chicago. Only $50 has been wagered on over 7.5 runs while $450 has been bet on the under.

• Vegas might have a losing day, but they’ll never have a losing year.
• For example, if the Eagles have 75% of the money but only 40% of the bets (+35% differential), this indicates that there are large bets on the Eagles.
• Bet percentages are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”.
• While we strive to provide accurate statistics and clear analysis, we encourage responsible engagement with sports betting.
• If a line opens Chiefs -3 but moves to -4.5 despite 70% public money on Kansas City, consider the factors driving the increase.
• You would immediately want to search for a sportsbook offering Miami +14 and quickly get down.

Public betting and public money statistics encompass everyone that’s bet roobetofficial.com into a line leading up to an NFL game. As mentioned earlier, fading the public means betting against the majority. This strategy can be effective in cases where public perception heavily influences betting lines.

It looks like under bettors wrote a fair number of small tickets. Since the widespread belief is that casual bettors make smaller bets, this would signal that the “sharp money” is on the over. NFL betting splits are simply a combination of public betting and money percentages. Together, these two variables paint a more telling picture of how bettors are approaching a line, at least in theory.

For instance, a split in an NFL matchup featuring Tampa Bay might show that 70% of the bet percentages are on the Buccaneers, but only 40% of the money wagered backs Tampa Bay. This discrepancy could suggest sharp bettors favoring the other side, often reflected in subsequent changes to the betting lines. Sharp money comes from professional bettors or betting syndicates who have deep knowledge of the sport, strong data models, and long-term profitable track records.

The public betting percentages are split into the percentage of the handle and the percentage of the bets a team has received from the public. If enough money is wagered on one side of a betting market, sportsbooks will usually shift the odds to encourage wagers on the opposite side (thus reducing their risk exposure). The run total splits in our Cubs/Cardinals example (90/10% in favor of the under) might encourage oddsmakers to drop the total to 7.0 or even 6.5.

Sharp Money Always Wins

The “% Bets” in this case will be 75% for Chicago and 25% for St Louis. Let’s assume the runline for that game is Cubs -1.5 (+150) / Cardinals +1.5 (-175). Unlike the moneyline, $350 has been wagered on St Louis to cover, and only $150 has been wagered on Chicago to win by multiple runs.

Online Sports Betting News & Offers

The examples illustrated above all reflect the handle percentage. (“Handle” meaning the total amount of money wagered on a betting market.) But sportsbooks also track the percentage of bets wagered on those same markets. The betting splits are the difference when comparing the percentages of public money (percentage of bets) and the percentage of the total money wagered, or “handle”. These are often similar, but a large discrepancy can alert you to possible sharp action. Monitoring public betting trends data is one of the most vital betting tools used by professional handicappers to find value within the sports betting marketplace.

It does provide an early sign, but you’d need to know the total handle bet on the game to properly sniff out sharp action. For example, if a game only has $1,000 wagered on it, you can throw out the idea of sharp action. Betting against the public has become such a popular method for so many. I have tracked the public’s betting record against the spread above to help you determine whether you should tail or fade the public.

Why The Public Creates Betting Value

This means that there is heavy sharp money coming in on Carolina, likely because the public money drove the line to a point where sharps identified value in Carolina. Finding profitable sports betting value doesn’t require a math degree or 40 hours of research. Follow signals such as reverse line movement, trend shifts, and injury overreactions to spot mispriced MLB & NFL props in under 10 minutes. By applying these tips, you’ll start to feel less like you’re in the dark and more like you have a flashlight into the betting world’s engine room. It can actually be fun and empowering to predict line movements or call out “that looks like sharp money” when watching games with friends.

Finding public betting splits can be difficult at times, but doing so can be very rewarding. Analyzing public betting data can provide insight into what sharp bettors are taking and could give clues as to which lines to avoid. The NFL season is still months away, but many sportsbooks have already posted their Week 1 lines which can be found on our NFL betting trends page. The New York Jets opened as 2.5 point underdogs and are receiving just 23% of spread bets, yet the line has dropped to +1, indicating early sharp money on this home dog. For that reason, we will continue to monitor this game as a potential best bet.

By tracking how popular bets affect NFL odds, you can identify discrepancies, avoid overhyped wagers, and make more calculated betting decisions. Pair this with actionable data-driven insights to refine your approach further. But what drives these trends, and how can NFL fans and bettors leverage this knowledge to gain an edge? This article delves into the dynamics of how public betting trends shape NFL odds, offering insights into the inner workings of betting markets. By exploring these trends, you’ll gain practical advice on making smarter, more informed wagers that can help you stay ahead of the game.

Another way to sniff out sharp vs. square action is by looking at betting splits – the percentage of bets on each side of a wager compared to the percentage of money on each side. This information is often provided by sportsbooks or aggregated by sports betting analytics sites. It’s powerful because it can show you if big money (likely sharp) is on one side while the majority of small bets (public) are on the other. There are several misconceptions about how public betting money percentages, odds, and trends should be interpreted. Understanding these misconceptions is critical for developing effective strategies in sports betting, particularly when analyzing public betting trends.

It’s more that the operator doesn’t mind if these statistics are publicly accessible. In the case of public money, the number of tickets written on each side is irrelevant. Understanding these shifts in betting lines is crucial for NFL bettors looking to make informed decisions.

Reverse Line Movement is one of the clearest indicators of sharp action. It means the line moves opposite to the direction we’d expect from public betting%. In plainer terms, the betting line shifts against the side getting the majority of bets. Because understanding these two groups helps explain why betting lines move and how to interpret those moves. Sportsbooks know who the sharps are and respect their bets more, whereas they expect the square majority to lose over time. Steam moves occur when there is a sudden, uniform line move across most sportsbooks at the same time.

It combines data from multiple sportsbooks to show overall betting sentiment. Consensus picks spot where the big money is across all bet types. One of the key skills that separates winning sports bettors from casual gamblers is the ability to identify sharp money versus public betting. Understanding where the smart money is going can help you make more informed bets and improve your long-term profitability.

Every single bet they take from a customer is recorded and stored in their system. This data can help inform your decisions on any NFL betting apps you’re wagering with. Tracking sharp vs public action can be quite difficult, as many sportsbooks do not disclose the wagers of their VIPs immediately, or do not include them in their pre-game reporting. To understand sharp money, it’s helpful to compare it with public money. Public money represents the majority of bets placed by casual fans. For example, during NFL Sundays, you’ll often see the public overwhelmingly bet on favorites or big-market teams.

My goal is to become a better sports handicapper and convey any information I come across here, at CoreSportsBetting.com. And if you’re looking for something a little different, you can check out our Kalshi referral code for a CFTC-regulated platform for prediction markets. “Fading the public” means taking the opposite side as the majority of the public. In the Cubs/Cardinals example we’ve been using, the public was backing the Cubs moneyline at a 60/40% split, the Cardinals runline at 70/30% split, and the under at a 90/10% split.

We will look closely at NFL betting, but this translates to all sports. In the past, public betting stats were largely inaccurate or only comprised a small subset of the bigger picture. However, legal online sportsbooks in the US have grown extremely efficient at record keeping. If a sportsbook posts public betting trends on social media, or in a daily newsletter, bettors can assume they’re fairly accurate. NFL consensus gives you the percentage of bettors backing a side in moneyline, spread, or total markets.